2005 Predictions: NL Revised

Way back in April you may recall I made my preseason predictions. Some have been fairly close while most have been horribly inaccurate. Here's a look back at where I went wrong.

NL East
1. Atlanta Braves (93-69)
2. Florida Marlins (92-70)
3. New York Mets (89-73)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80)
5. Washington Nationals (75-87)

Revised:

1. Atlanta Braves
2. Washington Nationals
3. New York Mets
4. Florida Marlins
5. Philadelphia Phillies

So far I look to be pretty accurate on the Braves and Phillies, but the Nationals are making me look like a fool. They will end up above .500 while the Marlins may not. Overall, not too bad. (Believe me, it gets worse.)

NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (92-70)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (81-81)
4. Cincinnati Reds (80-82)
5. Houston Astro (77-85)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (73-89)

Revised:

1. St Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Houston Astros
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh has played far better than I thought they would, the Reds far worse, the Cubs have been too banged up and have underachieved. The Cardinals pick looks good, except for standing, and the Brewers pick is almost right on. The Houston Astros continue to make me look like a fool.

A lot of people have the Reds as a darkhorse in this division, but I don't see it. Griffey won't stay healthy, Rich Aruilla's best days are behind him, same with Joe Randa, and they still don't have good enough pitching. Don't tell me Eric Milton, he can't carry a staff.

Wow, what happened to the Astros. Berkman is hurt, Kent and Beltran are gone, and Biggio and Bagwell are in the twilight of thier careers. Roger Clemens will wonder why he came back. Before the All-Star break.

Not bad, the paragraph is pretty dead-on in terms of how the Reds season has gone (sans the Griffey Jr comment.) The Astros comment is also 100% accurate but yet they are still winning.

Overall, not that bad, Brewers should be around .500, Reds and Pirates will be towards the bottom, but the Cubs won't win this divison and the Astros may come in second.

NL West
1. San Diego Padres (88-74)
2. San Francisco Giants (84-78)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80)
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (74-88)
5. Colorado Rockies (70-92)

Revised:

1. San Diego Padres
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Colorado Rockies

The Padres win this division by default. They are a good team, but not good enough to win a division, not even good enough to win a wild card. They still have a good bullpen and rotation and now add a dimension of speed with Dave Roberts. Was Brian Giles really worth Jason Bay and Oliver Perez?

The Giants should win this division, but they're too old and we don't know how many games Bonds will play in this year, if he even plays at all. This is the last season you will see this Giants team, its time to rebuild.

Arizona could sneek up on some people. I love Brandon Webb, he is a guy who's been victimized by Ben Sheets' disease throughout his career. He pitches great, but gets no run support. Toss in Javier Vazquez, Russ Ortiz and Shawn Estes and you have yourself a good rotation. The offense has some bopers, but Craig Counsell and Royce Clayton are your first two hitters in your lineup? Looks like a lot of solo home runs.

The Dodgers...What is Paul DePodesta doing? Can we stop this whole "Moneyball" Thing. The A's are winning because they have good players, not some formula. I read the book, I heard the lunacies, but the bottom line is Eric Chavez, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Durazo, Damon, Giambi, those guys were all good players. The things the Dodgers are doing here, and I know what it is, eliminating speed and steals for on base percentage and big hitters, it's just dumb. They went from a great defensive team to a bad one, and even worse they brought in sinker ball pitchers. So you want pitchers who will get ground balls when you have a bad defense?

The Rockies are bad. Just bad. Here's a thought, trade Todd Helton for some young pitching. You won't get sucess out of any free agent pitchers, because pitching in Coors is a mental thing now. You need a youngster who doesn't know anybetter and can be tought to use off speed pitches. Plus, you haven't won with Helton, so you might as well lose without him.

You can't argue with they way I picked this division. If Barry Bonds would have played this year, the Giants would be in 2nd or 3rd in that division. Overall, pretty good.

Wildcard: Florida Marlins

Playoffs:
Marlins over Braves
Cubs over Padres

NLCS: Marlins over Cubs

World Series: Yankees over Marlins

MVP: Nomar Garciaparra
Cy Young: Ben Sheets
ROY: JJ Hardy (would have picked Garret Atkins but he's already starting the season on the DL)

First palyer traded: Willy Mo Pena
First Manager Fired: Jim Tracy

Don't be surprised if: The people in Florida remember they have a baseball team.

Wildcard: Astros or Cubs
NLCS: Cardinals over who ever else shows up.

MVP: Derek Lee (right team, wrong guy)
Cy Young: Chris Carpenter
ROY: Rickie Weeks (again right team, wrong guy)

I believe Placido Polanco was the first to be traded, and no one in Florida cares about baseball, still.