Time to move on?

It's now mid February, so you know what that means in the NBA. We are fastly approaching the trading deadline. The quiet rumblings that have persisted for most of the season are now turing into rumors and have a lot of Bucks fans wondering what this team will look like in three weeks. Will Michael Redd be traded? What about Keith Van Horn or Tony Kukoc?

The two latest rumors to appear have Keith Van Horn going back to Philadelphia for former Buck-and my all time favorite-Glenn Robinson. I don't see this trade going down for one reason, why would the Sixers want Keith Van Horn back? I like Keith Van Horn, and I was in favor of the KVH for Tim Thomas trade, but after a season with him you see why he's moved around so much. Tim Thomas has immense potential, potential that could make him one of the best players in the NBA. But it's also potential he has yet to live up to, and probably never will.

Van Horn on the other hand is a consistent player. The problem however is Keith Van Horn in the NBA is nowhere near as good as Keith Van Horn in the NCAA. When you evaluate it you can't really say that's surprising. Some players have great college careers, but you look at it and just say "he won't be that good in the NBA." Corliss Williamson, Ed O'Bannon, Mateen Cleaves, you know who those players are. Keith Van Horn is one of those guys. Van Horn and Thomas put up nearly identical numbers, but the difference is you expect more from Thomas.

So why does Philadelphia want Van Horn back? They would like nothing more than to unload Glenn Robinson, we've known that for a full season now, but at the expense of adding the contract of Keith Van Horn. I know the sixers need offense to go alongside A.I., but they already tried that with Van Horn and it didn't work out. For that reason alone, I gotta believe this rumor is just a rumor.

When you evaluate it from the Bucks end it doesn't make much sense either. Sure you get rid of a huge contract in Van Horn, and Big Dog's contract expires at the end of the season, but what else do you get besides cap space. This is a team that has a lot of holes and overachieved last year. Van Horn has proven he can score 15-20 points a night. If you loose that, where are you getting offense from besides Michael Redd? And keep in mind you may loose Redd in the summer. Desmond Mason can score, but he's not as consistant, although he is starting to show some consistency now. So you gain a lot of cap room and hope you can use that to resign Redd and another player or two right? Ask teams like the Bulls, and Hawks how that worked out for them.

Just because you have a lot of money doesn't mean players will want to play for you. Especially in the NBA. The NBA is set up differently, where for the most part players current team can pay him more than any other team. If you're a free agent and the Bucks are throwing a ton of money at you, do you want to go there? We have seen this before, and the answer is no. At least in the case of high profile free agents.

If they loose Michael Redd and deal Keith Van Horn, as a free agent you're looking at joining a team who lost those two guys and TJ Ford, let's face it TJ will probably never play again. So you're thinking of going to a team who returns Desmond Mason as it's best player, no real post threat, a Joe Smith who is getting older, no small forward and two backup point guards fighting for the starting spot. Doesn't sound too intriguing. I could be wrong, they may be able to lure a high profile guy, but I doubt it. Unless they bring back Michael Redd.

The other rumored deal is just as unlikely in my opinion. Michael Redd and Keith Van Horn to Golden State for Dale Davis, Clifford Robinson and another player. Just as with Glenn Robinson, Davis and Clifford Robinson's contracts expire, but then again you'll have to lure someone to a team with little returning.

The bad thing is the Bucks are in a catch 22 here. A shooting guard is the easiest thing to find in the NBA, just look at Redd he was drafted late in the second round. You can always find 2 guards, so unless you have someone like Kobe, T-Mac, or Ray Allen you can move on without them. So that part of me says trade Michael Redd and get value for him. But the other half of me says what I just illustrated before. Without Redd it's going to be hard to lure a free agent here, unless they deal Redd for value and not cap room.

Because the rumors have been there all season long, and given Redd's situation you would think something is going to happen. But given that, I doubt anything will go down, at least anything big. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kukoc, Eric Strickland or Mike James go to a contender, but I still am not 100% convinced a big move will go down.

One thing to keep an eye on is Ray Allen. Allen has still not signed a long term deal with the Sonics, and by all accounts the two sides are miles apart. Ray has publicly said he misses Milwaukee and if the situation is right he'd like to return. I would not be surprised to see Ray Allen back in a bucks uniform next season. The Bucks could let Redd walk, or deal him for another player and then go after Allen in the offseason, or just let Redd walk, sign Allen and save money for the 2006 offseason to lure free agents to a team with Ray Allen, Desmond Mason, and Joe Smith.