Friday, September 08, 2006

2006 NFL NFC Predictions

So I'm technically a day late on my predictions here, but oh well. Here they are.

NFC East

1. NY Giants 11-5
2. Dallas Cowboys 10-6
3. Philadelphia Eagles 8-8
4. Washington Redskins 7-9

LaVarr Arrington upgrades the linebacking corp and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder in a division he's all too familiar in. Strahan, Umenyoria and rookie Matthias Kiwaunuka will be one of, if not the best pass rushing trio in the league/

On offense, Eli has the first full starting year under his belt already, Tiki Barber proved himself to be a top 5 running back in the league last year, Shockey is a threat at tight end and Sinorce Moss will help stretch the field.

Dallas is a very good team, but TO is bound to implode sooner or later. I give it four weeks before his first blow up at Bledsoe, plus this team is going to encounter a full blown QB controversy at some point in this season. The running game needs to improve, and other than TO and the extremely frail Terry Glenn, there is little else at reciever.

McNabb is not the quarterback he's been billed to be, but he's also not as bad as what we saw last year. Westbrook is a nice back, but they have no recievers that sacre any defense, and the defense is starting to get old. They benefit from not having Owens around, but they're closer to rebuild than contend.

Washington spent a lot of money again (surprise there) but once again on players they have no need for. They signed Randle El to starters money, but he'll serve as they're third reciever and kick returner, and then traded for Brandon Lloyd. This gives them three recievers under 5'11" and none of them are considered possession guys. Good luck moving the chains fellas. Factor in that Clinton Portis is nursing a separated shoulder already, Mark Brunell is 49 years old, Joe Gibbs is old man crazy, and this team only made the playoffs, let alone finished above .500 last year because of a hot streak, and it makes for a bad year in the nations capitol.


NFC North


1. Chicago Bears 10-6
2. Detroit Lions 8-8
3. Green Bay Packers 7-9
4. Minnesota Vikings 6-10

The Bears bear, no pun intended, a striking resemblence to the Baltimore Ravens of a few years back. The Ravens had no offense other than Matt Stover (Yes, the kicker Matt Stover) and still managed to win games and even a Super Bowl behind their defense. Only problem is the Bears defense isn't quite that good. They need to get some offense. Cut your losses and bench Grossman already. Griese should be the starter and Kyle Orton should be given every shot to win that job. It may not have been pretty but he won games last year. The defense is solid but they'll still need to find a second wideout and a quarterback

The Lions biggest upgrade in the offseason was Mike Martz, well that and the loss of Joey Harrington. Kitna is a vast improvement over Harrington. Roy Williams and Marcus Pollard will be well utilized in Martz's system. They just need defensive help.

The Packers upgraded at virtually every position this offseason, but that still isn't saying much. They're starting two rookie guards and breaking in a new center. That could be a disaster. Greg Jennings looks very impressive, just as much as Javon Walker did in his break out season. Jennings and Driver will provide Favre with two big play targets. Bubba Franks figures to be used a lot in Mike McCarthy's offense, after years of being wasted under Mike Sherman. The real question lies in Ahman Green, can he return to even 80% of what he was before the injury. On defense AJ Hawk was added, Cullen Jenkins continues to improve and Nick Collins is poised for a break out year. The question on defense is Charles Woodson, much like Green, can he return to show signs of his old self?

The Vikings are a bad football team, don't be fooled by a good preseason or all the hype, they're just bad. Brad Johnson, can he hold up? Who's going to run the ball, Chester Taylor? Who are your recievers now that Koren Robinson is gone and Nate Burleson left for Seattle? Their O-Line is solid, so they should have protection, but they have no play makers and very little depth. The defense is half rebuild half over priced veterans, and they lost their best player (Corey Chavous) in the offseason.

NFC South

1. Tampa Bay Buccanneers 12-4
2. Carolina Panthers 10-6
3. New Orleans Saints 7-9
4. Atlanta Falcons 6-10

The Buccaneers are the most complete team in this division. The have the best defense, two good recievers, a promising young quarterback, and a future pro bowl running back. The defense will onceagain be one of the best in the league and Chris Simms is only going to get better.

The Panthers scare me because they're everybodys darlings. Those teams never pan out. Steve Smith is already nursing a hammy, DeShawn Foster never plays in more than 8 games a season, and they don't have the depth on defense that they used to. I do like Jake Delhomme, and I love DeAngelo Williams, but this team won't unseat the Buccaneers.

New Orleans, 7-9? Yes, Reggie Bush will make that much of an impact. Well, Reggie Bush and Drew Brees. The defense is still awful, but the offense now has firepower and will be exciting to watch.

We saw some signs of it in the preseason game against Green Bay, but the Falcons are a bad football team. They're still a one man team, but it appears now that Vick isn't the Superman we all thought he was a few years ago. Warrick Dunn is a very underrated back, but there are no weapons at wideout. Vick, Dunn and Crumpler on offense, that's all they have. The defense has also taken some major steps back since the darling 2004 year they put up.

NFC West

1. St Louis Rams 11-5
2. Seattle Seahawks 9-7
3. Arizona Cardinals 8-8
4. San Francisco 49ers 5-11

I'm fully on board the Rams bandwagon, but moreso the Madden Jinx bandwagon, and the "Super Bowl loser stinks the next season" bandwagon. The Rams have changed philosophy and will commit to the run now, which is bad news for the West because Steven Jackson is the best running back you've barely heard of. They will control the clock with Jackson which will open up big plays for Bruce and Holt and the outside. The defense was also given a face lift this off season with the additions of Corey Chavous, LaRoi Glover and Will Witherspoon. Plus, no more Mike Martz to single handedly lose his team games (I realize I praised the addition for Detroit, but that's Martz as the coordinator, not the guy making all the decisions.)

I'm going off little else than the two explanations above. Alexander and the Madden Curse, and the Super Bowl loser stigma. Plus they lost Hutchinson, Darrell Jackson is hurt, and the defense lost guys, and added no one except for Julian Peterson who may or may not be washed up already.

The Cardinals are everyones sleeper pick, but I don't see it yet. The defense is still awful and the O-line stinks. So what if you have Edge, Fitzgerald and Boldin, if you can't block you can't get those guys the ball.

I like Mike Nolan and he's got this team going in the right direction. The Niners are just going to keep getting better under his control.

NFC WILD CARD

Giants over Bears
Cowboys over Panthers

NFC DIVISIONAL

Giants over Cowboys
Panthers over Rams

NFC CHAMPION

New York Giants

Sunday, September 03, 2006

It's Time Ned, It's Time

The Brewers have been a major disappointment this year. A good deal of that has been in large part due to injuries, some of it has been the result of a team having far too high expectations placed on them by their city, but a lot of that has been because of one man. Ned Yost.

Yost is arguably the worst manager in baseball. The mistakes that he makes, on a routine basis, are those you'd expect to see from a first year manager. This is Yost's fourth year under the helm and he was supposed to be the pupil of one of the best managers in the game (Bobby Cox) so how is it that he is so bad?

Not every aspect of Ned as a manager is bad. He has done a great job of changing the attitude of the team since he arrived and the atmosphere in the clubhouse, and he is very loyal to his guys and will stick up for his players to the umpires. But this is also where part of the bad lies.

His loyalty. He is loyal to a fault. Derrick Turnbow, Brady Clark, Geoff Jenkins, all guys who have seen extenisve playing time this year despite the fact that their play has not warranted it. You could argue that Jenkins total offensive drop off and lack of production has killed this offense. Yet Yost had no problem keeping him his everyday right fielder up until the middle of August, and even when the change was made Jenkins is still seeing a lot of at bats. Why? He's a .250 hitter who isn't even going to hit 15 home runs this year, stikes out a lot, and he was supposed to be your second best option for power on this team.

Meanwhile guys like Gabe Gross and Corey Hart have done nothing but produce when called upon as a pinch hitter or reserve roles, but they're still delegated to the bench.

Derrick Turnbow, the worst relief pitcher in baseball since July, has been given every opportunity to be the closer on this team. Even when these struggles were routinely costing this team game after game, Ned still went to him every game. I can understand letting a player work through struggles, but not when it is costing your team wins. Even when Turnbow was replaced as the closer, it lasted for all of two games before Ned went back to him.

Wouldn't you want a guy you just demoted to prove to you that he has fixed what his problems were before trusting him in such a key role again? Apparently not. Turnbow only made one appearance between his demotion from closer and promotion back into the role. How did he prove that you can rely on him again in just one appearance and two games removed from the role? The results were exactly what you would expect, he continued to cost them games.

This team has enough problems on it's own, they don't need thier own manager to sabbatoge them and do everything in his power to take wins away.

This team has so many problems scoring runs and more importantly, manufacturing runs. I can't tell you how many times I've seen a leadoff double get wasted by that runner not scoring. Why doesn't this team sacrafice bunt more you ask? Good question, well according to Ned it's because they're not very good at it. What?! Isn't that your job to make them good at it and work with them on it? If sacrafice bunting is such a problem, why aren't you spending three hours a day in batting practice working on laying down bunts? What have you been doing since February?! They're not very good at it? Are you kidding me?

Remember when Brady Clark was a regular player? Remember when Ned would green light him to steal bases whenever on base? Remember Brady getting thrown out every time? Me too. Brady Clark is the worst base runner in the history of baseball, so why then is he always given the go to steal, especially in instances when you have guys like Carlos Lee, Bill Hall and Prince Fielder at the plate? Why?

Why was Rick Helling, a reliever on this team mind you, placed in the starting rotation upon his return from the disabled list, bumping a promising young rookie in doing so? Remember that?

Helling was on the DL with arm and shoulder problems and meanwhile Carlos Villanueva was starting games and looked very promising turning in good starts each time he took the mound. Helling, the teams long reliever, returned from the disabled list and was named the fifth starter making Villanueva the long reliever. Why? Villanueva is a young promising arm who figures to be in your rotation next year, why risk stunting his growth at the benefit of a bullpen arm in his mid thirties who may or may not be on this team next year?

The most discouraging thing is that all of these problems were there four years ago, and have occured routinely during the span of his tenure. He has shown no signs of progression. If anything he's regressed.

Now that this team is more than 10 games below .500, it's time. It's time that Anthony Gwynn Jr and Carlos Villanueva are recalled from AAA. It's time Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench are given little to no more at bats for the rest of the season. It's time we see Gwynn, Hart and Nix as your regular starting outfielders for the duration of the season. It's time to see Vinny Rottino tried out at third, and catcher to see if he can handle either position. It's time we stop setting left handed hitters because lefties are pitching. It's time to start bunting and attempting to manufacture runs.

It's time we see all of this and more for the next month, but I have no doubt hardly any of these demands will be met. For these reasons, Ned Yost must go.